Dare to dream big? Kovalchuk

Nowadays, all anyone can talk about with regard to the Bruins is an offensive upgrade. And nobody would inject more offense into this team at the trade deadline than one Ilya Kovalchuk. Right now, there’s probably a 50/50 chance as to whether or not Atlanta puts Kovy on the market. To their credit, Don Waddell has (finally) surrounded Kovy with a strong supporting cast. But the contract discussions have dragged on and one gets the feeling that Kovalchuk has been in Atlanta long enough to know whether or not he wants to stay. Does he believe Atlanta is more of a Cup contender than the team he’d be traded to? Does he want to go play in a hockey market? The longer this situation goes, the wider the door is open to a trade. Heck, at this point, some are even questioning whether or not Atlanta’s owner is prepared to commit the massive payout it would take to retain Kovalchuk when the team is already hemorrhaging money. The team, as is, has a tremendous young core in place, and the bounty from a Kovalchuk trade could set them up to be a very good, very young, very cheap team going forward.

So what would it take to acquire him?
Provided the B’s could afford Kovalchuk’s pro-rated salary at the deadline (~$1.36M), any trade for him would have to be made with the knowledge that you might not be able to keep him. For one thing, Kovalchuk’s not likely to agree to an extension without getting a feel for the city, and even if he were willing to sign right away, there are no guarantees the Bruins could pull off the roster restructuring it would take to keep him.

So with that in mind, I think we can dial down the rhetoric that says it would take a player like Bergeron to acquire Kovalchuk. Philadelphia traded Lupul, Sbisa and two first-round picks for a signed Chris Pronger, so I’m going to assume that that would be the absolute max for an unsigned Kovalchuk.

From the Bruins point of view, that deal roughly translates to Wheeler or Stuart as the good young roster player, Colborne or Caron as the top level prospect, and Boston’s next two first round picks.

Looking around the league, there are probably a lot of teams that could offer players comparable to Wheeler or Stuart, but I don’t think there would be too many teams that would part with two first round picks for a rental- even one as good as Kovalchuk. But because Boston has both of Toronto’s 1st rounders, they have the ability to make that move without crippling their future. If there were another team offering two firsts, Boston could potentially still trump their offer by including Toronto’s first from 2011, with the idea being that Toronto won’t be as good in 2010 as many of the current playoff teams.

So, let’s say the Bruins win the Kovy lottery. Could he fit in here? Some don’t think so, but I beg to differ. Kovalchuk is fearless. He may not be a real active hitter, but he has destroyed a few players with open ice hits. He’s been in more than a few fights. And more importantly he does backcheck and battle for pucks. He’s certainly not known for his defense, but if Claude Julien can make Phil Kessel and Marc Savard responsible two-way players, I don’t see why he couldn’t do the same with Kovalchuk. And as good as the Bruins were last year, upgrading from Ward to Morris, from Axelsson to Sturm, from PTSD Bergeron to the real Bergeron and from Kessel to Kovalchuk- would make them significantly better.

Also not to be underestimated is the impact a player like this can have on the bottom line. Kovalchuk is an attraction. And a Bruins team that is loaded for Bear would generate the kind of fan frenzy that Pittsburgh and Washington now enjoy. Just imagine Boston as a rabid hockey town again: consecutive sell-outs, Bruins jerseys everywhere, TV ratings spikes and a playoff atmosphere for every regular season game…

So what would it take in terms of salary and roster changes, to keep him here long-term?
Resigning Kovalchuk is probably going to cost $90M over 10 years (which is the same money Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin make), but as we’ve seen with Savard, Hossa and Franzen, you can bring that cap hit down significantly by tacking on bogus years at the league minimum to the tail end of the contract, when the player will either be retired or bought out. In Kovy’s case, the numbers shake out like this: $90M over the first 10 years, then I’d drop it down is to $4.5M in year 11 (because you can’t drop this contract by more than $4.5 in any one year), and finally $525k for the last 3 years. In a nutshell, that’s $96M over 14 years for a cap hit of $6.85M.

I know those numbers are just… crazy for fans to digest. A decade long deal… $100M commitment… But the way I see it, Kovy is only 26 years old, so he'll be in his prime for the next 6 years. You should be able to get tremendous value out of him at a $6.85 cap hit over that span. The next 2-3 years would probably show some decline, and around year 9, year 10 you could very well be looking at an albatross contract as Kovy inches towards 36, 37 years old. But if he doesn’t retire, you do have the buyout option. And to me, a couple bad years for 7 or 8 years of one of the top5 players in the world is a trade I'll make. From Kovalchuk’s perspective, he’d be making market value for as long as he probably plans on playing, it allows him to play on a good team, and keep him with his former center and teammate Marc Savard. So all things considered, a pretty attractive offer.

What are the implications for next year’s team?
No doubt, you’d have to make some hard cuts to make this work. Just the fact that the Bruins don’t have any one player making $7M that they could cut means they’d have to move at least $8M in salary to afford Kovalchuk and the replacement player. The B’s could also try to move several mid-level salary types instead of just one or two big ticket players, but Atlanta had Kovalchuk, Hossa, Savard and not much else- and failed to make playoffs every year. So I still believe depth is important. My preference here would be to move two bigger contracts. Ryder seems to be the most expensive, expendable forward, and based on the stellar play of Rask and the abundance of solid 1b/backup goalies on the UFA market, the other guy I’d move would be Tim Thomas. I know that Timmy has a NMC, but if it’s clear he’s going to be relegated to backup duty, I think he’d waive it to keep his starter’s job and name his next team. Much like Vokoun did two years ago.
(Like I said, there are other options here, you could move Ryder, let Morris walk and waive Sturm if he doesn't agree to waive his NTC... Ryder/Thomas is just the path that I'd choose.)

Provided the Bruins bring back the rest of their existing team, those changes would leave the Bruins roughly $2.6M in cap space to add a #4 defenseman (to replace Ference), and add a solid, veteran backup to work with Rask. One of those replacements could come in the form of Toronto’s first round pick this year, with a couple potential stud defensemen available in Cam Folwer, likely to be there at pick #3, as well as Gormley and Gudbransson in the top10. As for backup goalies, I think the Bruins have to give Rask a backup who could play 40 games in case he struggles in his sophomore year, and there are quite a few UFA options in that regard: Biron, Niittymaki, Budaj, Mason, and even former Bruin Alex Auld, who knows these players, was terrific in this system, and posted a .911 save percent in 40 games for Ottawa last year. The Bruins could also try to fill these holes via the trades of Thomas and Ryder with goalies like Osgood and Conklin.

Here’s a look at a possible lineup:

Kovalchuk-Savard-Bitz
Sturm-Krejci-Wheeler ($3M)
Lucic-Bergeron-Marchand
Begin-Sobotka-Thornton
Extra: Dr.Love

Chara-Morris ($3.5)
Fowler-Wideman
Hunwick-Boychuk
Extra: McQuaid

Rask-Auld

That’s a pretty lethal lineup. And you still have over $1.1M in cap space if you wanted to upgrade Auld to a guy like Mason. I know people are going to freak when they see Bitz on the top line, and there’s enough talent there to set up the lines any way you like, but bear in mind, when Kovy and Savard played together they had a 12 goal plumber in Scott Mellanby on their right wing, digging pucks out of the corners, setting screens and driving to the net. That year, Kovalchuk had a career high in goals (52) and points (98), and Savard had career highs in goals (28) and points (97) as well. So there’s a precedent here that these two ultra skilled players would benefit from a right winger who can do for them, what Lucic did for Savard and Kessel (from the left side) the year before. All in all, that’s a team that will challenge for the Cup again next year.

Going forward, you’ve got Chara and Bergeron coming up for new contracts, but that shouldn’t be an issue because I doubt they’re going to get more than they make right now (Chara in particular could work out a deal like Pronger/Savard and actually lower his cap hit), and you also have Sturm’s $3.5 coming off the books. Not to mention a host of young prospects (after this next draft) in the pipeline, who could be ready to compete for jobs in 2011.

So there you have it: At least one way to acquire Kovalchuk, resign him, and integrate him onto this team without crippling our future or decimating the depth that has made this team successful. Is it a pipe-dream? Probably. But if you’re gonna dream, may as well dream big.