It’s a great debate, Taylor versus Tyler. They both look like they’re going to be franchise players for their organizations and because of that, I’ve tried to learn as much as I can about both players. But despite my best efforts to stay neutral (so that I could be happy with either), one player has risen to the top of my own personal draft board. That player is Tyler Seguin. Here’s why…
1. I think Seguin's regular season is significantly more impressive than Hall's.
Seguin putting up 106 points when the next best player on his team only had 23 goals (and nobody else even had 20) is significantly more impressive than putting up 106 points on a team with FIVE 30 goal scorers and THREE point per game defensemen.
Think about that and try to put it into NHL terms. Think of how hard it would be for a player to put up 106 points- by himself. Think how dominant that guy would have to be. I'm guessing that's why the people who follow the league voted for Seguin over Hall for Red Tilson Trophy, as the OHL's Most Outstanding Player. Seguin also beat Hall for Best Prospect Honors and finished second to '09 Draftee, Jordan Eberle for CHL Player of the Year.
How many points might Seguin have put up if he got to play on a team as overloaded with talent as Windsor?
2. Seguin is a year behind Hall in terms of development and experience.
Because of birth date cut-offs, Seguin is a full year behind Hall in terms of development and experience. This is only Seguin's 2nd year in the OHL, to Hall's 3rd. Seguin is eligible for 2 more World Jr's to Hall's 1. That's a significant difference at that age. Check out this excerpt from a Gare Joyce article on the topic...
“One OHL insider: "Making these projections, you have to allow for how many players these guys have played in the league. Because Hall is a late 1991 [birthday] and came into the league a year ahead of Seguin [who is a January '92 birthday], Hall has the benefit of two full seasons and the longest playoff run you can have [going into the 2009-2010 season]. Seguin is halfway through his second year now, though he's only a couple of months younger. It's like with John Tavares and Matt Duchene last season -- Tavares was in his fourth year in major junior and Duchene his second, so what you saw with Tavares was a much more fully developed kid. The money says that's what we're seeing with Hall and Seguin. … Tie goes to the younger guy."
I look at it like this: How many points would Seguin get if he got a 3rd crack at the OHL like Hall?
3. There’s “more room for growth” in Seguin’s game.
I’ve heard that line repeatedly with regard to Seguin, and the best explanation I’ve heard for it was by a poster on the Oiler board who’s seen both players extensively, ”The fact that he [Seguin] more or less equaled Hall in the regular season despite being behind physically is big feather in his cap. It’s scary to think how much better his overall game would be if he was as physically developed as Hall. Contrary to Hall, Tyler isn't close to a finished product, there are so many dimensions that he can add to his game as he gets stronger and more experienced. In terms of pure talent and smarts, Seguin has Hall beat, he also might be physically superior when all's said and done as well. Seguin's ceiling is higher and that’s why this debate is close.” That last point, about Seguin having a higher ceiling, is also a phrase that keeps coming up from scouts and the media. To paraphrase from today’s Edmontonian: “Seguin may be the better player in three years, but how can the Oilers pass on Hall with the Memorial Cup he’s having.” I understand the debate, but respectfully, I prefer the guy who projects to be the best player in three years.
4. Seguin’s skill-set.
In the OHL’s Coaching Poll, Seguin was voted the OHL’s Smartest player, second Best Stickhandler, Best Playmaker, and second Best Goal Scorer (to Hall, even though he had 8 more goals.)
For a scouting report, I’ll once again defer to the incredibly well-informed Surixon...
-Outstanding skater with world class puck skills and hands.
-Has a very hard and accurate wrist shot with a nice deceptive release.
-Outstanding hockey sense and anticipation in all 3 zones on the ice.
-Sees the ice exceptionally well and passes at an incredibly high level.
“As for player comps. I hate the Yzerman, Toews and Spezza ones as his game imo isn't that similar to any of them. First, he skates at a much higher level than any of those three and has an extra gear speed wise that none of them have or had. He has better puck skills then both Spezza and Toews. In fact the only things that Spezza and Seguin share are their wrist shots, vision and passing. Seguin is much more advanced in his overall game than Spezza was at the same age.
The comparison I like the best is Datsyuk, they play similar styles and posses very similar tool sets. I believe Seguin has a chance to be better than Pavel because he's bigger and is also faster. “
That’s an interesting comparison because Datsyuk is the exact player Chiarelli referred to last year when describing the way he wanted his skill players to play. It’s also worth noting that Datsyuk frequently plays the wing for Zetterberg.
Based on what I’ve seen, and taking into consideration the ‘bigger, faster version of Datsyuk’ comparison, I happen to think that, as a winger, Seguin projects like a North American Marian Hossa. In his prime, Hossa was a 40+ goal, 100 point, Selke Nominee. That’s just about as perfect/ideal a skill-set as I can think of. Now, Seguin doesn’t yet have Hossa’s ability to work the walls because, while they’re both 6’1”, Seguin’s a slight 180 and Hossa’s a powerful 210, but that’s exactly what Surixon was talking about when he said that Seguin can add even more dimension to his game as he fills out and gets stronger. Otherwise, the speed, the hands/stickhandling prowess, the shot/release, the two-way game, the vision and 3 zone smarts… they’re all applicable.
5. I think Seguin is a better fit for the Bruins than Hall.
First off, I don’t think there’s any issue with Seguin playing the wing. He broke into the OHL as a wing. Chiarelli says he’s seen him be just as effective on the wing. Seguin says he’s comfortable on the wing… And who’s to say that, like Patrick Marleau, he won’t be more effective as a winger?
Second, I think that Savard is most effective playing with a righty. This may sound silly, but look back at this year where we saw Savvy really struggle playing exclusively with lefty trigger men like Sturm and Satan. And throughout Savard’s career, he’s always been paired with a righty, from Iginla to Kovalchuk (not Hossa) to Murray to Kessel. There’s just something about the way Savard likes to operate from the right corner and half-wall, facing the slot on his forehand, where a righty is open for a one-timer or a quick release, and a lefty isn’t.
And like Kessel, I think Seguin’s experience as a center, specifically carrying the puck through the neutral zone and having the offense flow through him, meshes well with the way Savard quickly gets the puck into his RW’s hands coming out of his own zone.
If the Bruins draft Seguin, they should be able to drop him right into Kessel’s old spot on RW with Savard and Lucic. But I’m not so sure they can do the same with Hall because he's a left-shot. If Hall plays on Savard's RW, then that means Savvy would be playing with two lefties. And if that doesn’t work and they put Hall back at his natural LW, then that means Savard would have to play with one of the right wingers he’s already struggled with in Ryder or Wheeler. Either way, Seguin seems like the more comfortable fit, to maximize the assets that we already have.
I also really like what I’ve heard about Seguin’s high IQ and attention to defense. You heard the Datsyuk reference, one of the reasons for that is Seguin’s awareness in all three zones, and his deft ability to strip pucks and transition. All qualities that are a prerequisite for big minutes on a Claude Julien coached team.
I’d also be remiss if I didn’t admit that I’m a bit concerned about Hall’s health. Every game this guy plays he seems to get absolutely blasted. What’s going to happen when you add 20-40 lbs to those collisions in the NHL? Admittedly, this criticism feels unfair because a lot of the hits Hall takes are the result of playing fearlessly- a trait that should be commended. But given the Bruins history with high-end talent having their careers shortened due to injury, I can’t help but worry about it.
I will say that Hall has the clear edge in ‘clutch playoff performance.’ He’s about to become a two-time Memorial Cup MVP and he earned that honor, without equivocation. I’d only add that it’s hard for Seguin to match that accomplishment because of the team he plays on. And fwiw, when Seguin did get to play on a great team with great players, for Canada at the under 18’s, he stole the show. Again from Gare Joyce:
"Seguin was great in that tournament," the scout said. "The line he played on with [Sudbury's] John MacFarland and [Ottawa's] Tyler Tafoli was the best line I've seen in more than 10 years at the summer-18s."
So maybe Seguin has big game ability too…
And last but not least are Seguin’s character, coachability and work ethic. A lot of people say that the Taylor vs Tyler debate comes down to Hall being more NHL ready versus Seguin having a potentially higher upside, and that Hall is #1 because he’s the ‘bird in the hand’. But I think the concern that Seguin won’t reach his potential is severely mitigated by his work ethic. I remember a recent article where his coach described him as the hardest working player he’s ever had (seen?). And as far as character and coachability, Seguin draws comparisons to Steve Yzerman, while Kyle Woodlief of RLR had this to say about Hall in USA Today, “…we'd hate to be the NHL coach whose job it will be in a few months to rein in this selfish, immature winger with a head swelled so large that he can't fit through doorways and absolutely no concept of doing what's best for the team instead of thinking of himself.” And there was something similar in the Gare Joyce column as well, “What you do see sometimes is a little acting out. He'll talk a lot, pregame, at players, at other teams' benches and give refs a hard time." Those kinds of comments strike a nerve in this Bruins fan because part of the reason Kessel was deemed persona non grata is because of maturity, stubbornness and coachability issues.
So in the final analysis, I choose Seguin, because there are logical arguments for why I think he may have the higher ceiling, because there are physical reasons why
I think he’d mesh better with our current lineup, and because his two-way style and character strengths are in sync with the Bruin’s organizational philosophy.
